Pharmacists should brace themselves for worsening stock shortages over the next three months, PSNC and wholesalers have warned.

The ongoing renegotiation of a scheme to control the cost of branded drugs to the NHS would exacerbate problems caused by the European import/export market, said the contract negotiator and the British Association of Pharmaceutical Wholesalers (BAPW).

There had been a "substantial increase" in problems obtaining some branded medicines over the past year, PSNC said. The warning came in a response to a Department of Health consultation on the Pharmaceutical Price Regulation Scheme (PPRS).

Manufacturer quotas had resulted in "delays to patient care where stock hasn't been allocated correctly by the manufacturer or managed appropriately by the wholesaler", PSNC said.

"PSNC is very concerned that the current problems will be exacerbated by the impact of the proposed PPRS branded medicines price reductions in January 2009," the statement said.

In June, the DH and the pharmaceutical industry, via the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry (ABPI), agreed cost cuts of 5 per cent to come into effect on January 1.

Shortages were likely to increase, BAPW executive director Martin Sawer agreed, as wholesalers would begin to destock from October in order to avoid adverse impacts of the price cuts.

Both the DH and ABPI said they were unable to comment until the PPRS was finalised. The DH said it welcomed contributions to the consultation.

PSNC's and BAPW's warnings came as drugs firms Lilly UK sent a letter to contractors highlighting its Direct 2 Pharmacy service, through which pharmacists can order out-of-stock medicines directly from the manufacturer. Wholesaler stock shortages were due to "changes in buying patterns", Lilly said, and not manufacturing problems.

• Stock shortages of branded medicines headlined a discussion of pharmacists' concerns at a local pharmaceutical committee's annual general meeting last week.

GP Stuart Ward agreed with Hampshire & Isle of Wight contractors that the shortages were "a major problem". And fellow panellist Helen Clanchy, Hampshire PCT commissioning director, said the idea of pharmacists chasing out-of-stock medicines "fills me with horror".

England's chief pharmacist, Keith Ridge, told the meeting: "The government, as you might expect, takes that very seriously and we are looking very carefully at the medicines supply chain."

The discussion also unveiled pharmacists' concerns that the profession's workforce planning was insufficient, particularly for delivery of white paper proposals.

"For those people who have to find pharmacists to manage their pharmacies and run their services, it's becoming a big challenge," said LPC chief officer Mike Holden. "And if we're going to put more service into pharmacy, that's going to need careful change management."

A pharmacy subgroup of Medical Education England, an advisory board proposed by Lord Darzi's NHS review, would be likely to inform implementation of educational reforms proposed in the white paper, Mr Ridge said. "That is in my view a big step forward."